FHQ has been on a bit of a hiatus over the course of the last two weeks. In terms of movement in the polls, it was probably the worst time other than the post-convention period to be away from these electoral college updates. Still, that space -- the chance to take a step back -- can help to provide a bit of perspective about what is going on. There can be a tendency to miss the forest for the trees.
Before getting to today's newly released state polls, a few observations.
1. Yes, this period has been particularly bad for Clinton in the polls following the "deplorables" and pneumonia combination. And while there has been an erosion of support for the former Secretary of State, she maintains a tenuous grasp on a lead in the electoral college count. The margins have shrunk in the FHQ averages across the board, but only Iowa and Nevada have jumped the partisan line from Clinton to Trump. North Carolina and Ohio remain on the Clinton side of the ledger, but only barely so. All four states are within a point of being tied.
2. The list of toss ups holds those four states in addition to Florida, Arizona and Georgia. That is all. Those seven states are all within the three points of shifting sides. And it is worth noting that that specific battleground is superfluous to Clinton's path to 270. Though the terrain may change in the next six weeks, all seven states are wants rather than needs for Clinton. However, that cushion she had weeks ago is shrinking as Trump has pushed the partisan line up the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum below toward the victory line (or tipping point as is more common).
3. Meanwhile, the other 44 states (including Washington, DC) lean five or more points in favor of one candidate or the other. That fact is more important to Clinton at this point since the combination of her lean and strong states continue to put her over the 270 electoral vote mark. Clinton's slide has narrowed the gap specifically in those lean states. But Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia all seem sticky; tightening but less than some of the other states and not looking likely to shift far enough toward Trump. Others in that Lean Clinton category like Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin -- and maybe criminally underpolled Minnesota -- are closing more quickly and may bear closer scrutiny in the home stretch rather than the "sticky" lean group.
4. For all the noise in this race for the White House, it has been pretty stable through the lens of the electoral college. This thing still looks an awful lot like 2012 (both on the map and on the Spectrum). All the Obama states save Iowa and Nevada are still with Clinton and all the Romney states except North Carolina are currently in Trump's corner. Yes, some other states are teetering on the brink of shifting sides, but overall, it is evidence of a remarkable stability that does not often get talked about.
At least some of that stability has something to do with the method FHQ uses. The graduated weighted average reduces the crests and troughs of the roller coaster and is also slower than some other forecasting models to react. FHQ has defended this slow reaction time in the past. When a change happens here -- particularly one that is part of a longer-term trend -- that has tended to be a lasting change. There is more certainty behind it.
If the slowness has been noticeable anywhere, it has been in those Lean Clinton states cited above: Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those bear watching in the coming weeks.
On to the polls...
New State Polls (9/21/16) | |||||||||
State | Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Clinton | Trump | Undecided | Poll Margin | FHQ Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida | 9/10-9/16 | +/- 4.5% | 475 likely voters | 49 | 43 | -- | +6 | +2.26 | |
Nevada | 9/18-9/20 | +/- 3.5% | 805 likely voters | 40 | 43 | 3 | +3 | +0.14 | |
New Hampshire | 9/17-9/20 | +/- 4.9% | 400 likely voters | 47 | 38 | 3 | +9 | +5.50 | |
North Carolina | 9/18-9/20 | +/- 3.1% | 1024 likely voters | 43 | 45 | 7 | +2 | -- | |
North Carolina | 9/18-9/20 | +/- 3.5% | 800 likely voters | 40 | 45 | 7 | +5 | +0.93 | |
Ohio | 9/18-9/20 | +/- 3.5% | 806 likely voters | 37 | 42 | 10 | +5 | +0.82 | |
Wisconsin | 9/15-9/18 | +/- 4.8% | 677 likely voters | 41 | 38 | 7 | +3 | +7.12 | |
Wyoming | 9/6-9/11 | +/- 4.9% | 402 likely voters | 19 | 54 | 15 | +35 | +35.48 | |
Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
Florida keeps being Florida. The polling has been volatile in the Sunshine state, but that two to three point Clinton lead here at FHQ has been quite consistent. Granted, polls like this St. Leo survey and the Monmouth poll from a day ago were good ones for Clinton. Her average rebounded somewhat on the addition of those surveys, but they only bumped the margin up by a fraction.
Nevada:
| Changes (September 21) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
New Hampshire:
The post-convention double digit leads are gone in the Granite state for Clinton, but they have been replaced by a steady stream of surveys that have further entrenched New Hampshire in the Lean Clinton area. What's more, New Hampshire is a state where Trump has had difficulty pushing above 40 percent. That is workable in some state, but not in one where Clinton finds herself on the high side of the mid-40s.
North Carolina:
It was a good day for Trump in the North Carolina polls. The PPP survey -- Trump +2 -- is in line with other recent polling. And the five point advantage in the Fox poll may be a sign of some further changes in the Tar Heel state. However, Trump has not led a poll by more than four points there since March. This one could also be an outlier. North Carolina has been on Clinton's side of the partisan all along here at FHQ, but that could change.
Ohio:
Like Nevada, every post-9-11 poll in the Buckeye state (but with one exception) has favored Trump. And like North Carolina, that trend has brought Ohio to the cusp of shifting over to Trump. What had mostly been two to four point leads for Clinton after the conventions are now mostly two to four point advantages for Trump.
Wisconsin:
While there probably need to be more polls conducted in Wisconsin, the Badger state has consistently fallen in the Clinton +3 area over the last month or so to seemingly confirm where it stands. The addition of the Marquette poll did little to break from that trend -- replicating the Clinton/Trump numbers from August -- but it did nudge the average there down just a little bit more. Clinton may be hovering just above 40 percent in Wisconsin, but it is another state, like New Hampshire, where Trump has has some trouble breaking that barrier or getting very far past it.
Wyoming:
Sure, both candidates are lagging behind their 2012 counterparts in the Equality state, but Wyoming remains the reddest of red states. The new DFM poll only confirms that.
--
Obviously, Nevada's six electoral votes shift toward Trump. That is reflected on the map, Spectrum and Watch List. Additionally, on the weight of the new polls in North Carolina and Ohio, both are now included on the Watch List.
The Electoral College Spectrum1 | ||||
HI-42 (7) | NJ-14 (175) | NH-43 (269 | 273) | TX-38 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
MD-10 (17) | DE-3 (178) | RI-43 (273 | 269) | MS-6 (116) | TN-11 (50) |
MA-11 (28) | NM-5 (183) | FL-29 (302 | 265) | SC-9 (110) | SD-3 (39) |
VT-3 (31) | MN-10 (193) | NC-15 (317 | 236) | AK-3 (101) | ND-3 (36) |
CA-55 (86) | WI-10 (203) | OH-18 (335 | 221) | UT-6 (98) | ID-4 (33) |
NY-29 (115) | MI-16 (219) | IA-6 (203) | KS-6 (92) | NE-5 (29) |
IL-20 (135) | CO-9 (228) | NV-6 (197) | AR-6 (86) | OK-7 (24) |
WA-12 (147) | ME-4 (232) | GA-16 (191) | IN-11 (80) | WV-5 (17) |
CT-17 (154) | VA-13 (245) | AZ-11 (175) | LA-8 (69) | AL-9 (12) |
OR-7 (161) | PA-20 (265) | MO-10 (164) | MT-3 (61) | WY-3 (3) |
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Clinton's toss up states plus New Hampshire), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Rhode Island are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning New Hampshire and Trump, Rhode Island, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1 | |||
State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas | from Lean Trump | to Strong Trump | |
Delaware | from Strong Clinton | to Lean Clinton | |
Indiana | from Strong Trump | to Lean Trump | |
Iowa | from Toss Up Trump | to Toss Up Clinton | |
Maine | from Lean Clinton | to Toss Up Clinton | |
Missouri | from Lean Trump | to Toss Up Trump | |
Nevada | from Toss Up Trump | to Toss Up Clinton | |
New Hampshire | from Lean Clinton | to Toss Up Clinton | |
New Jersey | from Strong Clinton | to Lean Clinton | |
North Carolina | from Toss Up Clinton | to Toss Up Trump | |
Ohio | from Toss Up Clinton | to Toss Up Trump | |
Oregon | from Strong Clinton | to Lean Clinton | |
Pennsylvania | from Lean Clinton | to Toss Up Clinton | |
Rhode Island | from Lean Clinton | to Toss Up Clinton | |
Virginia | from Lean Clinton | to Toss Up Clinton | |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
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