New State Polls (11/7/16)
Morning Polls
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-2.27%	1863 likely voters	42	41	6	+1	+3.91
Florida	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-2.02%	2352 likely voters	45	48	3	+3	--
Florida	Quinnipiac	11/3-11/6	+/-3.3%	884 likely voters	46	45	5	+1	+1.98
Georgia	Landmark	11/6	+/-2.8%	1200 likely voters	46	49	2	+3	+3.04
Missouri	Emerson	11/4-11/5	+/-3.5%	750 likely voters	41	47	4	+6	+8.02
Nevada	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-2.31%	1793 likely voters	45	46	4	+1	--
Nevada	Emerson	11/4-11/5	+/-3.9%	600 likely voters	47	46	2	+1	+0.96
New Hampshire	Emerson	11/4-11/5	+/-3.0%	1000 likely voters	45	44	3	+1	--
New Hampshire	UNH/WMUR	11/3-11/6	+/-3.7%	707 likely voters	49	38	4	+11	+4.82
New Mexico	ZiaPoll	11/6	+/-1.8%	8439 likely voters	46	44	1	+2	+6.44
North Carolina	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.92%	2596 likely voters	45	48	2	+3	--
North Carolina	Quinnipiac	11/3-11/6	+/-3.3%	870 likely voters	47	45	4	+2	--
North Carolina	Siena/New York Times (Upshot)	11/4-11/6	+/-3.5%	800 likely voters	44	44	6	+/-0	+1.36
Ohio	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.94%	2557 likely voters	44	45	3	+1	--
Ohio	TargetSmart	10/31-11/3	--	1194 likely voters	40	43	2	+3	--
Ohio	Emerson	11/4-11/5	+/-3.2%	900 likely voters	39	46	6	+7	+0.01
Pennsylvania	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.89%	2683 likely voters	46	45	3	+1	+5.00
Virginia	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.77%	3076 likely voters	46	44	3	+2	--
Virginia	Christopher Newport	11/4-11/6	+/-3.6%	1193 likely voters	48	42	5	+6	+6.20
Wisconsin	Remington	11/1-11/2	+/-1.88%	2720 likely voters	49	41	4	+8	+6.49
Afternoon Polls
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Data Orbital	11/4-11/6	+/-4.12%	550 likely voters	44	47	1	+3	+1.71
Florida	Opinion Savvy	11/5-11/6	+/-3.4%	853 likely voters	48	46	1	+2	--
Florida	Trafalgar	11/6	+/-2.89%	1100 likely voters	46	50	1	+4	+1.89
Georgia	YouGov/CBS	11/3-11/5	+/-4.6%	995 likely voters	43	49	3	+6	+3.14
Michigan	Trafalgar	11/6	+/-2.77%	1200 likely voters	47	49	1	+2	+6.51
Nevada	Trafalgar	11/1-11/4	+/-3.02%	1100 likely voters	45	50	2	+5	+0.80
Pennsylvania	Trafalgar	11/3-11/5	+/-2.68%	1300 likely voters	47	48	2	+1	--
Pennsylvania	YouGov/CBS	11/3-11/5	+/-4.3%	931 likely voters	45	43	4	+2	+4.84
Utah	Trafalgar	11/3-11/5	+/-2.67%	1350 likely voters	30	40	2	+10	--
Utah	YouGov/CBS	11/3-11/5	+/-4.9%	762 likely voters	23	40	4	+17	+9.971
Evening Polls
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Florida	Gravis	11/1-11/2	+/-2.8%	1220 registered voters	46	45	2	+1	+1.87
Michigan	Gravis	11/1-11/4	+/-3.0%	1079 registered voters	46	41	3	+5	+6.46
Nevada	Gravis	11/3-11/6	+/-2.9%	1158 likely voters	45	43	5	+2	+0.83
New Mexico	Gravis	11/1-11/2	+/-2.7%	1327 registered voters	45	37	2	+8	+6.58
North Carolina	Gravis	11/1-11/4	+/-2.8%	1250 registered voters	46	45	3	+1	+1.36
Virginia	Gravis	11/1-11/4	+/-2.7%	1362 registered voters	47	42	3	+5	--
Virginia	Hampton	11/2-11/6	+/-4.4%	802 likely voters	45	41	14	+4	+6.12
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 8.48 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 24% in the YouGov survey and 25% support in the Trafalgar survey. He currently has an FHQ graduated weighted average share of support of 23.39%, trailing both Trump and Clinton.

--
Changes (11/7/16) -- Early edition
One last day.

Changes (November 7 -- Morning)
State	Before	After
Ohio	Toss Up Clinton	Toss Up Trump

• Ohio jumped the partisan line from Toss Up Clinton to Toss Up Trump, but note the average: +0.01. The Buckeye state is close here at FHQ. 
• Nevada rejoins the Watch List, slipping under the Clinton +1 threshold, but the Silver state has been hovering there. 
• Colorado slides off the Watch List. It is now just a bit more than a point from the Lean/Toss Up line (+5) on the Clinton side of the partisan line. 
• The ZiaPoll survey of New Mexico -- given the sample size, it was the whole state -- drew the average in a bit further. It has tracked down to about a six and a half point lead for Clinton in the Land of Enchantment. That pushed New Mexico down to the lower half of the Lean Clinton group of states on the Electoral College Spectrum. 

Late edition

Changes (November 7 -- Afternoon)
State	Before	After
Pennsylvania	Lean Clinton	Toss Up Clinton

• The Trafalgar and YouGov surveys were enough of a drag on the FHQ average in Pennsylvania that the Keystone state slipped just under the Lean/Toss Up line. Pennsylvania, then, follows New Hampshire as states that have until recently been just above that line but have hopped over it into the Toss Up Clinton area. Both remain clustered around that line, however; just on the opposite side.  
• That move also flips Pennsylvania on the Watch List, but keeps it in the same position on the Spectrum. 
• The Trafalgar survey of Michigan is the first to show Trump ahead since 2015. It may be a sign of something in the Great Lakes state or it could be an outlier (balancing out that MSU survey from last week). Either way, it decreased the average margin enough to ease Michigan past Maine on the Spectrum. 
• Also, Utah once again traded spots with Indiana, pushing to the very end of the Lean Trump area. The new polls out of the Beehive state nudge Trump even closer to 40 percent in the averages. Again, that will be enough to keep Clinton and McMullin at bay there and Utah in the Republican column.

Late late edition

• The Breibart wave of last minute Gravis polling releases mostly confirmed the state of the race in each of the states. There was some shuffling among the New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin cluster in the Lean Clinton area. New Mexico bounced back slightly after pushing down that column earlier in the day. Everything else held steady.

Barring anything unforeseen or any straggler surveys, this is likely what the final map will look like on election day. There are a few polls yet to be added into the dataset (the non-Breitbart wave of Gravis polls), but the expectation is that that will not alter the bottom line any if at all. It will not where it counts in any event: Clinton 322, Trump 216.

--

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	RI-4 (162)	NH-4 (263)	TX-38 (161)	TN-11 (61)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	SC-9 (123)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	MO-10 (114)	ND-3 (44)
MA-11 (31)	MN-10 (193)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	IN-11 (104)	NE-53 (41)
CA-55 (86)	ME-23 (195)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	UT-6 (93)	KY-8 (36)
NY-29 (115)	NM-5 (200)	OH-18 (216)	MS-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20+13 (136)	WI-10 (210)	IA-6 (198)	SD-3 (81)	ID-4 (19)
DE-3 (139)	MI-16 (226)	AZ-11 (192)	KS-6 (78)	WV-5 (15)
WA-12 (151)	VA-13 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	LA-8 (72)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (158)	PA-20 (259)	AK-3 (164)	MT-3 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/6/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/5/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)

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New State Polls (10/31/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Remington	10/30	+/-3.17%	952 likely voters	45	44	4	+1	+4.01
Florida	Remington	10/30	+/-3.11%	989 likely voters	44	48	4	+4	+2.08
Georgia	Survey USA	10/25-10/27	+/-4.1%	594 likely voters	42	49	6	+7	+2.89
Indiana	Monmouth	10/27-10/30	+/-4.9%	402 likely voters	39	50	5	+11	+9.56
Nevada	Remington	10/30	+/-3.49%	787 likely voters	44	48	3	+4	+1.02
North Carolina	Remington	10/30	+/-2.85%	1176 likely voters	44	47	4	+2	+1.74
Ohio	Remington	10/30	+/-2.84%	1187 likely voters	43	48	5	+5	+0.52
Pennsylvania	Gravis	10/25-10/30	+/-1.7%	3217 likely voters	47	44	4	+3	--
Pennsylvania	Remington	10/30	+/-2.77%	1249 likely voters	45	43	6	+2	+5.40
Virginia	Remington	10/30	+/-2.94%	1106 likely voters	47	43	5	+4	+6.81
Wisconsin	Remington	10/30	+/-2.86%	1772 likely voters	46	42	5	+4	+6.44

Polling Quick Hits:
8 days until Election Day.

At first glance, there is a bit of a rightward shift. At first glance. The bulk of the polling ushering in the new week is from Remington in a set of eight battlegrounds. But following the baseline the firm established a week ago, there was little change; even in a series of surveys in the field after the Friday revelations concerning the FBI and emails potentially linked to Clinton. That is not to say that the race is not in the midst of a bit of a narrowing period or that another email story will not have an effect, but there are not clear signs of that yet from the state level polls.


Colorado:
Clinton has consistently been in the mid-40s in Colorado. The question remains whether Trump can pull above and away from the 40 percent mark. The Remington survey is some evidence that he can, but will that happen across other polls in the Centennial state over the next week? Consistency is the name of the game there.


Florida:
Trump has not been as high as 48 percent in a multi-way poll all year in Florida. Ahead, yes, but not that close to 50 percent. That Remington finds him there is exception rather than rule. Clinton in the mid-40s is more typical.


Georgia:
Survey USA has not been in the field in the Peach state since just after convention season and Clinton is still stuck at 42 percent, just below Obama's share of support there in 2012. Meanwhile, Trump has bumped up to near 50 percent. That is a newish development in multi-way Georgia polls. Newish because Opinion Savvy had Trump stretching up to around that mark last week. Those types of polls make Georgia look a lot more like 2012 again with perhaps a modest shift toward the Democrats.


Indiana:
In two and half weeks the Monmouth polls in Indiana have shifted toward Trump. Like the typical lean state (on either side of the partisan line) the leading candidate is in the mid- to upper 40s while the trailing candidate is tethered to the 40 percent threshold. Clinton is that trailing candidate in the Hoosier state and Trump-Pence seem well-positioned in the VP nominee's home state.


Nevada:
Remington is the only firm to find Trump at or above 47 percent in a multiple candidate survey all year in the Silver state. There is some wiggle room in Nevada since that level has been foreign territory for both candidates. It would not be odd to see support moving away from undecided and the third party candidates as Election Day approaches. Remington may be the first to show that moving toward Trump, but they are alone in a close state just a hair more than a point overall in Clinton's favor.


North Carolina:
In the Tar Heel state, Remington is the only firm to find Trump ahead in the time since the first debate. The data may be turning but are not there yet.


Ohio:
Consistently variable Ohio has shifted into a period during the second half of October favoring Trump. The established range in the polling during that time is tied to Trump +5. This Remington survey is on the upper end of that range while FHQ's average in the Buckeye state is closing in on a tie. The trajectory of this one is in Trump's direction and it could cross over the partisan line in the next week.


Pennsylvania:
Trump still has not trailed in a Pennsylvania poll in 2016. The margin has contracted some here at FHQ as the space between the candidates in the Keystone state has narrowed, but it will have to close a lot more and consistently and frequently over the next week to change course in a state that has been out of Trump's reach and almost necessary to getting to 270.


Virginia:
Virginia has been even more impervious to Trump's entreaties than Pennsylvania has. That is true even in a series of Republican-leaning polls.


Wisconsin:
The Badger state is somewhere in between Pennsylvania and Virginia both in term of outlook and its position on the Electoral College Spectrum below. It is very simply the classic Lean state this cycle, and in this case, Trump is the trailing candidate stuck around 40 percent.

--
Changes (10/31/16)
Nothing changed on the map, Spectrum or Watch List from a day ago.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	RI-4 (162)	PA-20 (263)	TX-38 (161)	TN-11 (61)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	MO-10 (123)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	SC-9 (113)	ND-3 (44)
MA-11 (31)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	UT-6 (104)	KY-8 (41)
CA-55 (86)	MN-10 (198)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	IN-11 (98)	NE-53 (33)
NY-29 (115)	ME-23 (200)	OH-18 (340 | 216)	MS-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20+13 (136)	MI-16 (216)	IA-6 (198)	KS-6 (81)	ID-4 (19)
DE-3 (139)	VA-13 (229)	AZ-11 (192)	SD-3 (75)	WV-5 (15)
WA-12 (151)	WI-10 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	LA-8 (72)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (158)	NH-4 (243)	AK-3 (164)	MT-3 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/30/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/29/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/28/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.