New State Polls (10/6/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	OH Predictive Insights	9/28-9/30	+/- 3.66%	718 likely voters	42	42	9	+/-0	--
Arizona	Emerson	10/2-10/4	+/- 3.9%	600 likely voters	44	42	6	+2	+1.80
Florida	University of North Florida	9/27-10/4	+/- 3.8%	686 likely voters	41	38	10	+3	--
Florida	Emerson	10/2-10/4	+/- 3.9%	600 likely voters	44	45	4	+1	+2.04
Indiana	Public Opinion Strategies/Howey	10/3-10/5	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	38	43	8	+5	+11.11
Maryland	Washington Post/University of Maryland	9/27-9/30	+/- 4.0%	706 likely voters	63	27	2	+36	+28.28
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	10/1-10/3	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	43	32	12	+11	+6.22
Nevada	Emerson	10/2-10/4	+/- 3.6%	700 likely voters	43	43	2	+/-0	+0.25
New Hampshire	Suffolk	10/3-10/5	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	44	42	8	+2	+5.10
Ohio	Anzalone	9/27-10/2	+/- 3.46%	800 likely voters	44	42	4	+2	+0.56
Rhode Island	Emerson	10/2-10/4	+/- 3.9%	600 likely voters	52	32	6	+20	+12.29
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	9/19-10/2	+/- 3.7%	1000 registered voters	33	44	14	+11	+14.52
Texas	Dixie Strategies	9/29-10/1	+/- 3.51%	780 likely voters	37.95	44.87	10.26	+6.92	+8.63
West Virginia	Garin Hart Yang	9/13-9/17	+/- 5.0%	500 likely voters	28	60	12	+32	+24.70

Polling Quick Hits:
Yesterday's trickle is today's relative flood of new state-level polling data to dig into.

Arizona:
The most recent wave of UPI/CVOTER polls had Trump ahead by ten points in the Grand Canyon state. And it stands alone in a series of around two point leads in surveys throughout 2016 in the state.  Even without cell phone users included in the sample, Emerson falls in that range in its new Arizona poll. Of course, this is the first poll Clinton has led there since the end of August. The balance of narrow leads had shifted primarily toward Trump through September; building a small but seemingly durable lead for the New York businessman. The tie in the OH Predictive Insights polls is in a similar position, although this is the closest Trump has been in a series of surveys that have favored Clinton all year.


Florida:
The two new polls from the Sunshine state can tell a couple of different stories taken on their face(s). On the one hand, they represent more evidence that Florida is close. But Florida is always close. On the other, one could take a slightly out of context position that, together, they offer a mixed message about who is ahead. Of the 14 polls in the field after September 11 that FHQ has included in the averages, Clinton has led in 11 of them. Out of the two new polls, take that Emerson one with a grain of salt.


Indiana:
Before jumping to conclusions on the latest Howey survey out of Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence's home state, some context. The last poll there was pretty close to the same. Trump is pulling the same 43 percent he did at the beginning of September as he is now. The difference is on Clinton's side, and it is a minimal two percentage point shift in her share of support. Things have gotten marginally closer, then, but only slightly lowers the FHQ graduated weighted average in a Strong Trump state.


Maryland:
Two things on this latest Washington Post poll of Maryland:
1. It looks a lot like the 2012 vote (share) distribution in the Old Line state (only Trump is lagging behind Romney).
2. It also closely resembles the poll the paper conducted in the state in March. Clinton's share is the same and Trump's has increased by one percent.

Mark Maryland as safely blue.


Michigan:
One could argue that Clinton got a bounce in Michigan out of the first debate. Across the last two EPIC/MRA surveys -- one last month before the debate and one this week -- her margin in the Great Lakes state has ballooned from three to eleven. Yet, that may miss part of the story in Michigan. What is interesting is that the two candidates shares of support in the firm's surveys of Michigan have snapped back to exactly where they were just after the two conventions had wrapped up.

Michigan remains one of those 40 percent states for Trump, a state where Trump has struggled to reach and/or stay around 40 percent. Two things do work in Trump's favor there. Clinton has not really broken out of the low 40s and there continues to be a sizable chunk of undecideds there. Granted, Trump would have to win a significant portion of them to even pull even with Clinton.


Nevada:
Nevada is the closest state in FHQ's averages. Just a quarter of a point separates Clinton and Trump there. It is fitting, then, that the new Emerson poll of the Silver state finds the race knotted up. But in the post-debate landscape, this is a good poll for Trump. Everything since that point has turned in Clinton's direction in Nevada, but the leads have been slight.


New Hampshire:
Including the recent UPI/CVOTER survey the last two polls of the Granite state have shown a much tighter race than has been the case for much of the year. Unlike most states in the immediate aftermath of Clinton's mid-September illness, the polls did not really budge in New Hampshire. After the margins briefly climbed into the low double digits in some surveys just after the conventions, most settled into a Clinton +5 to +9. That trend persisted even when the polls narrowed elsewhere in September. These two could be a blip on the radar or be a sign of some new trend. However, it should be said that this is Suffolk's first trip into New Hampshire this cycle.


Ohio:
The Anzalone survey in Ohio looks a lot like another recent poll of the state. While there is some consistency across those two surveys, the reality is that the polling is mixed in Ohio. The Buckeye state is close; not Nevada close, but not far off from that either.


Rhode Island:

Changes (October 6)
State	Before	After
Rhode Island	Lean Clinton	Strong Clinton

In 2012, the Rhode Island vote distribution ended up looking a lot like that of Maryland's. Four years later, however, the similarity has disappeared. Maryland seems the same, but Rhode Island, while still comfortably blue, has seen the gap between candidates contract. The story there is not that Trump has made any gains. He is, in fact, currently only slightly -- a point -- ahead of Romney's pace. Rather, the issue is that Hillary Clinton has consistently run well behind where Obama was in the Ocean state four years ago. Even in this new Emerson poll -- one where the former Secretary of State is well ahead of Trump -- she is about ten points behind Obama 2012.

Rhode Island could do with some more polling.


Tennessee:
Sure, both candidates are lagging behind their 2012 counterparts in this Vanderbilt poll of the Volunteer state. And Trump is even further behind Romney than Clinton is Obama. However, that does not change the fact that Trump continues to be around 15 points ahead of Clinton in Tennessee. It is still falls well into the Strong Trump group of states.


Texas:
FHQ does a mini-double take every time we see a Texas poll with Trump only ahead by a margin in the upper single digits. But those sorts of surveys have been the rule rather than the exception during 2016. While the Lone Star state has been polled infrequently, they collectively paint a picture of a consistent -- albeit it smaller than normal -- Republican advantage.


West Virginia:
For every Maryland on the Democratic side of the partisan line there is a West Virginia on the Republican side. The Mountain state is nearly the surest thing for Donald Trump, but it still amazing how far West Virginia has traveled across the Electoral College Spectrum in the time since another Clinton was the last Democrat to carry the state.


--
There was a lot to look at, but not much to show for it. The bulk of the figures had mostly Rhode Island flavored changes. The Ocean state inched back into a more typical Strong Democratic position on the map, taking its four electoral votes with it. Additionally, it represented the largest moving state on the Electoral College Spectrum; shifting three spots toward the Democratic end. The other shifts on the Spectrum were only small flips of one spot. Finally, the Watch List lost both Rhode Island and Michigan.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	WA-12 (162)	PA-20 (263)	SC-9 (154)	MT-3 (53)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	TX-38 (145)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	AK-3 (107)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	MS-6 (104)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	ME-23 (190)	OH-18 (334 | 222)	IN-11 (98)	NE-53 (33)
NY-29+13 (116)	MN-10 (200)	NV-6 (340 | 204)	KS-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20 (136)	MI-16 (216)	IA-6 (198)	UT-6 (81)	OK-7 (19)
DE-3 (139)	WI-10 (226)	AZ-11 (192)	LA-8 (75)	ID-4 (12)
CT-7 (146)	VA-13 (239)	GA-16 (181)	TN-11 (67)	WV-5 (8)
RI-4 (150)	NH-4 (243)	MO-10+13 (165)	SD-3 (56)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Maine CD2	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/5/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/4/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/3/16)

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New State Polls (9/22/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Insights West	9/12-9/14	+/- 4.5%	484 likely voters	33	37	19	+2	+1.55
California	Insights West	9/12-9/14	+/- 4.3%	515 likely voters	57	30	9	+27	--
California	PPIC	9/9-9/18	+/- 4.5%	1055 likely voters	47	31	4	+16	+20.50
Colorado	Franklin & Marshall/Colorado Mesa	9/14-9/18	+/- 6.3%	350 likely voters	41	34	10	+7	--
Colorado	Quinnipiac	9/13-9/21	+/- 3.9%	644 likely voters	44	42	2	+2	+5.84
Florida	Suffolk	9/19-9/21	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	44	45	7	+2	+2.16
Georgia	Quinnipiac	9/13-9/21	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	40	47	4	+7	+1.76
Illinois	Emerson	9/19-9/21	+/- 3.6%	700 likely voters	44.5	38.7	7.3	+5.8	+14.68
Iowa	Quinnipiac	9/13-9/21	+/- 4.0%	612 likely voters	37	44	5	+7	+0.51
Louisiana	Southern Media & Opinion Research	9/15-9/17	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	32.6	48.9	10.8	+16.3	+13.23
Maryland	Goucher/Field Politics Center	9/17-9/20	+/- 4.3%	514 likely voters	58	25	8	+33	+31.15
Nevada	Insights West	9/12-9/14	+/- 4.9%	398 likely voters	40	42	10	+2	+0.29
North Carolina	New York Times (Upshot)/Siena	9/16-9/19	+/- 3.6%	782 likely voters	41	41	5	+/-0	+0.88
Virginia	Roanoke	9/11-9/20	+/- 3.4%	841 likely voters	44	37	9	+7	--
Virginia	Quinnipiac	9/13-9/21	+/- 3.8%	659 likely voters	45	39	6	+6	+5.94
Washington	Insights West	9/12-9/14	+/- 4.4%	505 likely voters	38	28	14	+10	+12.62
Wisconsin	Emerson	9/19-9/20	+/- 3.6%	700 likely voters	44.5	38.4	4.1	+6.1	+7.03

Polling Quick Hits:
There is a lot to look at today with just 47 days until Election Day: 17 new surveys from 14 states.

Arizona:
Other than the Cronkite survey of Arizona at the end of August, this Insights West poll is the lowest share of support either candidate has garnered in the Grand Canyon state all year. Both polls share a high number of undecideds, but the bottom line, perhaps, is that this is another survey with Trump ahead but in the toss up area. His lead there has stabilized as September has not seen Trump trail Clinton in Arizona.


California:
Clinton's 47 percent in that PPIC poll jumps off the screen at first glance except that it is actually an improvement over her share of support in last PPIC poll from July. She may be lagging behind Obama in 2012 in the Golden state, but Trump continues to trail not only Clinton but Romney's pace four years ago as well. California is still blue.


Colorado:
The two polls out of the Centennial state are pretty representative of the polls over there: Clinton at or just above 40 percent and Trump moving around from the mid-30s to around 40 percent. Colorado could be close, but it will take Trump's support firming up some there to pull it off.


Florida:
Yesterday was a good day for Clinton in Florida, but the polling there has been back and forth throughout September. And there was a snap back toward Trump today in the latest Suffolk survey. Of course, while the polling has been volatile, the average margin in the Sunshine state here at FHQ has not. Clinton's advantage has been stuck in that two to three point range for a while now.


Georgia:
In the Peach state, Trump has found a consistent footing in the mid-40s; something confirmed in Quinnipiac's first survey in the state. On the other hand, Clinton looks a lot like Trump does in a number of the states he will likely need to get to and over 270. In other words, she is stuck around 40 percent and playing catch up.


Illinois:
So far in 2016, the Clinton-Trump race in Illinois has been only sporadically surveyed. It is a shame, then, that the two most recent polls -- two surveys showing a Democrat dipping into the 40s -- come from landline-only Emerson and Loras (whose only other poll was a big outlier in Iowa earlier in the summer). Look, if the other poll from Emerson today -- a Clinton +6 in Wisconsin -- is right on the mark, then it would be highly unusual for Illinois to closer. Or put it this way: if Clinton is only ahead  by around six in Illinois, then the expectation would be that Trump is leading in Wisconsin. None of the polling there has borne that out to this point.


Iowa:
Like Arizona and Georgia, Iowa has seen a string of Trump leads in the polls during September. That streak continues in the latest Quinnipiac survey of the Hawkeye state. What is more is that the near ties in August have been displaced by results that would fall in the Lean Trump category. Those are the types of polls, when strung together, that can build a durable lead. What is Trump's 40 percent problem in a number of the Lean Clinton states is Clinton's problem in the Arizona, Georgia and Iowa trio.


Louisiana:
One could focus on how Trump continues to fall short of Mitt Romney's share of the 2012 vote in states like Louisiana, but that tends to miss the point. Clinton is running well enough behind Trump that the Pelican state is still safely red; off to the far right hand column on the Electoral College Spectrum below.


Maryland:
Like Wyoming yesterday, both candidate are behind the marks set by the 2012 candidates in Maryland. But that matters less in view of the fact that the Old Line state is so far off to the Democratic side of the Spectrum.


Nevada:
Nevada is another state, like a handful above, that has been good to Trump in in September. With only one exception, the New York businessman has led every poll in that stretch but the very first one of the month. The narrow Clinton lead that developed following the conventions disappeared and has  been replaced by a narrow Trump advantage in the state. That edge can only grow so much as long as the poll margins remain as close as they are in polls like the Insights West survey.



North Carolina:
The Tar Heel state has seen no such polling streak for either candidate over the last month. Clinton's overall advantage in the state here at FHQ continues to shrink. But the range of results it a pretty tight band around something close to zero. It is fitting, then, that the new survey of the state from Siena shows just that: a tie. North Carolina, along with Iowa, Nevada and Ohio, are all within a fraction of a point of shifting across the partisan line. Unlike the other three, though, there is no clear trend toward Trump. Instead, North Carolina resembles a closer version of volatile Florida.


Virginia:
As FHQ mentioned in yesterday's update, Virginia is one of those "sticky" Lean Clinton states where the polling (and resulting average) has consistently had Clinton out front by a margin beyond the Lean/Toss Up line (in the Lean category). The two new polls of the Old Dominion from Roanoke and Quinnipiac do nothing to shake up that particular conclusion.


Washington:
The margin in the new Insights West survey looks about right in Washington if past elections are any guide. However, both candidates are collectively only pulling in the support of about two-thirds of the respondents in the poll. That has both Clinton and Trump well behind where Obama and Romney were in the Evergreen state four years ago. Washington is underpolled, but the picture gleaned from what data there is still finds the state in a comfortable area for the Democrats.


Wisconsin:
In the Badger state, just wait on other polling. The Emerson poll there may be in line with expectations, but standing alongside the other survey from the firm today, it looks off. Or something about the two surveys is mismatched. The clear picture in Wisconsin is that Clinton's cushion has dissipated, but that she has a durable, though small, advantage there.


--
There was some subtle shuffling on the Electoral College Spectrum today, but nothing that broke with the patterns established throughout this cycle. No states changed categories and the map and Spectrum remain largely the same. Colorado's addition to the Watch List and into a tight cluster of states (Maine, Pennsylvania and Virginia) along that Lean/Toss Up line.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	NH-43 (269 | 273)	TX-38 (155)	LA-8 (58)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	RI-43 (273 | 269)	MS-6 (116)	TN-11 (50)
MA-11 (28)	NM-5 (183)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	SC-9 (110)	SD-3 (39)
VT-3 (31)	MN-10 (193)	NC-15 (317 | 236)	AK-3 (101)	ND-3 (36)
CA-55 (86)	WI-10 (203)	OH-18 (335 | 221)	UT-6 (98)	ID-4 (33)
NY-29 (115)	MI-16 (219)	NV-6 (203)	KS-6 (92)	NE-5 (29)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (232)	IA-6 (197)	AR-6 (86)	OK-7 (24)
WA-12 (147)	ME-4 (236)	AZ-11 (191)	IN-11 (80)	WV-5 (17)
CT-17 (154)	CO-9 (245)	GA-16 (180)	MT-3 (69)	AL-9 (12)
OR-7 (161)	PA-20 (265)	MO-10 (164)	KY-8 (66)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Clinton's toss up states plus New Hampshire), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Rhode Island are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning New Hampshire and Trump, Rhode Island, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Arkansas	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Colorado	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Maine	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
North Carolina	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.