New State Polls (10/26/16) State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin Florida Selzer/Bloomberg 10...
New State Polls (10/26/16) |
State | Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Clinton | Trump | Undecided | Poll Margin | FHQ Margin |
|---|
Florida | | 10/21-10/24 | +/-3.2% | 953 likely voters | 43 | 45 | 6 | +2 | +2.26 |
Louisiana | | 10/19-10/21 | +/-4.4% | 500 likely voters | 35 | 50 | 8 | +15 | +13.65 |
Montana | | 10/3-10/10 | +/-4.0% | 590 adults | 27 | 43 | 20 | +16 | +14.21 |
Nevada | | 10/20-10/24 | +/-3.7% | 707 likely voters | 43 | 43 | 2 | +/-0 | +1.20 |
New Hampshire | | 10/20-10/24 | +/-3.5% | 768 likely voters | 45 | 36 | 3 | +9 | -- |
New Hampshire | | 10/22-10/25 | +/-4.9% | 401 likely voters | 46 | 42 | 4 | +4 | +6.16 |
Utah | | 10/23-10/24 | +/-4.0% | 750 likely voters | 28 | 32 | 4 | +4 | +9.481 |
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.01 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 29% support in the Rasmussen survey. |
Polling Quick Hits:
13 days to go.
If yesterday was a day of mostly blue state polls, then today mixes in a bit of red with a couple of battleground surveys.
Florida:
Selzer's survey of the Sunshine state may be a harbinger of things to come, but it is by itself among recent polling in showing a Trump lead. That is not to say that this poll is off. It could be the start of a trajectory change, but that is not evident yet. Truth be told, Trump's 45 percent is at about the apex of his recent polling support in Florida polls while Clinton's 43 percent share is around her lowest.
Louisiana:
Trump has dipped into the mid-40s a handful of times in the Pelican state, but has mostly been somewhere in the 50 percent area. That will be enough to win Louisiana, particularly when he is ahead for Clinton by nearly 14 points.
Montana:
Like South Dakota a day ago, it is nice to have some data from underpolled Montana. But unlike South Dakota, this poll from Montana State-Billings conducted in the same window as the Trump tape and the town hall debate finds a wider Trump advantage. And that is true despite the fact that Trump is in the low 40s.
Nevada:
Nevada is competitive, but has consistently produced polls with Clinton tied with Trump or ahead in the toss up range. This Marist survey fits right in that area. It narrows the FHQ margin a touch, but keeps the Silver state on the Clinton side of the partisan line but still off the Watch List.
New Hampshire:
Much was made earlier in the day about the Monmouth New Hampshire poll on top of the Trump lead in Florida. However, that Clinton +4 is on the low end of the range in the Granite state while the Marist survey is on what has been the higher end of the range established since debate season started. Split the difference between the two and one ends up pretty close to where FHQ has the race in New Hampshire now: a little more than six points in Clinton's direction.
Utah:
Utah is closer than the FHQ average indicates. It is no surprise given how consistent the results have been across most polls there over the last week. Trump has fairly consistently lead even with McMullin nearly evenly splitting the typical Republican share of support in the Beehive state. And while that Trump lead is real, it is also real tenuous in a ruby red state with just less than two weeks left until election day.
--
Changes (10/26/16)
Nothing changed on the map, Spectrum or Watch List from a day ago.
The Electoral College Spectrum1 |
MD-102 (13) | | | | |
HI-4 (17) | | | | |
VT-3 (20) | | | | |
CA-55 (75) | | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | ID-4 (7) |
WA-12 (158) | | | | WY-3 (3) |
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.
4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. |
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1 |
State | Switch |
|---|
Colorado | from Toss Up Clinton | to Lean Clinton |
Indiana | from Lean Trump | to Strong Trump |
Mississippi | from Strong Trump | to Lean Trump |
Ohio | from Toss Up Clinton | to Toss Up Trump |
Oregon | from Lean Clinton | to Strong Clinton |
Pennsylvania | from Lean Clinton | to Toss Up Clinton |
Utah | from Lean Trump | to Strong Trump |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories. |
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/25/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/24/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/23/16)
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New State Polls (10/16/16) State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin Colorado Gravis 10/12-10/13...
New State Polls (10/16/16) |
State | Poll | Date | Margin of Error | Sample | Clinton | Trump | Undecided | Poll Margin | FHQ Margin |
|---|
Colorado | | 10/12-10/13 | +/- 2.8% | 1226 registered voters | 44 | 39 | 9 | +5 | +3.92 |
Florida | | 10/11-10/13 | +/- 2.3% | 1799 registered voters | 46 | 42 | 9 | +4 | +2.27 |
Montana | | 10/10-10/12 | +/- 3.2% | 1003 likely voters | 36 | 46 | 6 | +10 | +13.63 |
Nevada | | 10/12-10/14 | +/- 4.5% | 996 likely voters | 46 | 40 | 4 | +6 | +0.99 |
Utah | | 10/12-10/14 | +/- 5.7% | 951 likely voters | 20 | 37 | 11 | +17 | +11.54 |
Virginia | | 10/11-10/14 | +/- 3.6% | 809 likely voters | 44 | 29 | 5 | +15 | +6.33 |
Polling Quick Hits:
With 23 days until Election Day, Sundays stopped being lazy polling days. There were six new polls in six states. Each of the four blue state polls increased Clinton's advantage while the two red state polls brought mixed results for Republican nominee, Donald Trump.
Colorado:
The only utility in the Gravis survey of registered voters in Colorado was that it created a more seamless trendline to be drawn between this poll and the last two polls of registered voters the firm conducted there before and after the first debate. A four point Trump lead in the pre-(first)debate Gravis poll has become a five point margin for Clinton now. And who knows what the picture would look like if Gravis was using a likely voter screen. If other post-(first)debate polls of likely voters are any indication, Clinton's lead would be larger.
Florida:
In the Sunshine state, Gravis conducted another survey of registered voters. And this one mirrors the PPP survey (of likely voters) released late Friday. Clinton maintained a four point edge in both while pushing into the upper 40s. The data since the first debate have been decidedly in Clinton's direction, and that continues here, nudging the average margin there up just a little bit further out of Trump's reach.
Montana:
What can be said about the rare Montana poll from Mason-Dixon? Trump is comfortably ahead, but is under 50 percent in a state where Mitt Romney managed over 55 percent of the vote in 2012. That Trump lags Romney means less in light of the fact that he retains a double digit advantage in the Treasure state.
Nevada:
Clinton still has yet to trail in a Silver state survey in the field after the first debate. Of those nine post-(first)debate polls in Nevada one-third of them have had Clinton up by six points including this latest poll there from YouGov. Clinton's edge there is growing as the polling in Nevada begins to look more like that in Florida and North Carolina. All three have witnessed a steady stream of Clinton-favorable surveys. Only Ohio has had a less steady picture among the toss up states where Clinton is ahead.
Utah:
Utah is making a good case to be the most volatile state between now and Election Day. This is a state where a Republican should win handily, yet Trump has consistently polled under 40 percent. Clinton has not really taken advantage of that, languishing more often than not in the 20s. Her results have been consistent there (not to mention in range of Obama's 25 percent there in 2012). Trump's position has been far more volatile and the trajectory of independent candidate, Evan McMullin, continues to track upward. This one is not necessarily close between Trump and Clinton, but there are a number of variables at play in Utah that could make it difficult for Trump to claim the Beehive state's six electoral votes.
Virginia:
The new Christopher Newport survey of the Old Dominion is bleak for Trump as it has what was a little more than a third of the support in the school's last poll slipping under 30 percent now. If that is the outlook in Virginia, it is not any wonder that the campaign diverted resources from there to North Carolina this last week.
--
These polls triggered a few minor shifts in the graphics today. Montana jumped a couple of spots closer to the partisan line on the Spectrum but remains out of reach to Clinton in the Strong Trump area. More meaningfully, there was a slight shake up among the battleground states for the first time in a long while. Nevada and Ohio swapped places on the Spectrum, but both are now tipped approximately one point in Clinton's direction. By one one-hundredth of a point, Ohio is now the closest of the Clinton states. The Watch List lost Virginia on the weighted of the sizable margin in the CNU poll. The map as well as the electoral vote distribution stayed as they were a day ago.
The Electoral College Spectrum1 |
MD-102 (13) | | | | |
HI-4 (17) | | | | |
VT-3 (20) | | | | |
CA-55 (75) | | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | WV-5 (8) |
RI-4 (150) | | | | WY-3 (3) |
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.
4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. |
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1 |
State | Switch |
|---|
Indiana | from Strong Trump | to Lean Trump |
Maine CD2 | from Toss Up Trump | to Lean Trump |
Mississippi | from Strong Trump | to Lean Trump |
Nevada | from Toss Up Clinton | to Toss Up Trump |
New Hampshire | from Lean Clinton | to Toss Up Clinton |
Ohio | from Toss Up Clinton | to Toss Up Trump |
Oregon | from Lean Clinton | to Strong Clinton |
Pennsylvania | from Lean Clinton | to Toss Up Clinton |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories. |
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/15/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/14/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/13/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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